Hillary wins Pennsylvania straw poll

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Saturday January 12, 2008 · 8:03 AM PST

2008/01/12 · 08:03

Looks like things have settled back into where they were before Iowa and New Hampshire, and the national CNN poll has suggested. A straw ballot at the Pennsylvania state Democratic committee meeting has demonstrated the superior performance of Hillary's campaign once again.

Results:

Hillary 44.9%
Obama 27.5%
Edwards 24.1%

Follow me for the details, and how this signifies...

campskunk

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Friday January 11, 2008 · 5:01 PM PST

2008/01/11 · 17:01

Hillary Clinton was going door to door in Las Vegas with state Assemblyman Ruben Kihuen, visiting Hispanic and black neighborhoods. From the Las Vegas Review Journal article, they stopped in on Gilberto Santana:

Santana told Clinton how his wife, Elizabeth, a housekeeper on the Strip, was barely supporting the family single-handedly while he was unable to work for two months because of an operation. "We're sort of struggling," he said. "We're getting there, but you have to be strong to make it." Clinton asked the couple questions about their mortgage and his disability payments, and answered his questions about immigration and the war and health care costs.

I was reading through this article, and was transfixed by one exchange:

A man shouted through an opening in the wall that his wife was illegal. "No woman is illegal," Clinton said, to cheers.

Follow me...

campskunk

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Wednesday December 26, 2007 · 10:29 AM PST

2007/12/26 · 10:29

Not a lot of text out yet on this from Gallup, but Hillary won Gallup's most admired woman poll- AGAIN - for 2007. There's a video up on the Gallup website, but no text article yet. CNN has a blurb up with the numbers, including dates and sample size.
The poll surveyed 1,011 Americans December 14-16, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Hillary and Oprah are within the MOE, with Hillary two percent higher.

The numbers:

Hillary Clinton 18%
Oprah Winfrey 16%
Condoleeza Rice 5%
Angelina Jolie 3%
Laura Bush 3%

Hillary has won this poll for ten of the last eleven years, beaten once by Laura Bush in 2001.

campskunk

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Sunday December 23, 2007 · 1:04 PM PST

2007/12/23 · 13:04

I never thought I'd see the day on a progressive blog where I'd have to defend John Lewis, a hero of the Selma Bloody Sunday march, and one of the "Big Six" in the civil rights movement. John Lewis went on from his SNCC activist days to become a prominent member of Congress, where he has represented Georgia's fifth congressional district since 1987. He sits on the Ways and Means Committee, but he hasn't gone all establishment on us. He was one of the first congressional members to call for the impeachment of George Bush.

So, what's not to like about John Lewis, I was wondering. Why all the enmity? What did he do wrong? He endorsed Hillary, that's what he did wrong. And now people who aren't worthy to hold his coat are taking cheap shots at him.

And no, you're not going crazy. John Lewis is still a hero of the progressive movement. Follow me for a brief history of the events surrounding this endorsement, and an analysis of shameful attempts to spin it into something it is not.

campskunk

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Friday December 21, 2007 · 9:28 AM PST

2007/12/21 · 09:28

Senator Barack Obama’s advisors had a major brainfart and apparently forgot what party they're supposedly members of with their latest stunt. Not only are they highlighting his failure to gain the support of the labor unions (the backbone and workhorses of our party), but now he’s using that failure in his latest funding appeal to his supporters.

The "if you don't support Obama you're the enemy" meme started when Paul Krugman for daring to criticize his half-assed health care reform plan has expanded and metastasized. Opposition research, twisted and misquoted words... it's starting to look CREEPy in the Obama campaign (joke for you old-timers and Watergate aficionados).

And now this? Obama's campaign is attacking labor unions, teachers and EMILY’S LIST. They back the "wrong candidate" and are working to help get their chosen Democrat elected, and he goes on the attack with a backhanded slur against the core of the Democratic Party.

What is wrong with Obama? There's a serious disconnect between his view of the party and our longstanding "big tent" approach to a coalition.

Follow me...

campskunk

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Thursday December 13, 2007 · 6:05 PM PST

2007/12/13 · 18:05

The post-debate poll put up this afternoon had predictable results- Barack Obama won with 37%, followed by John Edwards with 27% and Hillary Clinton with 12%. Of course, that tells me a lot more about candidate loyalties than it tells me about the actual debate performances. People vote for their candidate.

Or do they?

Well, mostly, they do. But there's a few people in there voting for the best performer, not their favorite candidate. If only there were a way to control for the sample bias and just look at the people who voted for the best performer...

Well, there is.

We took a straw poll here about 24 hours before this debate, which tells us ALMOST EXACTLY what the sample bias is (assuming that a representative sample voted in each poll). Controlling for the sample bias, it's clear that Hillary won the debate by "outperforming" her straw poll numbers with her debate poll numbers. Obama performed above expectations, but not as well as Hillary, and Edwards, well.... not so good.

Follow me for the math and anguish.........

Poll

88 votes Show Results

Statistics:

88 votes Vote Now!

Statistics:

sucks

7 votes

blows

9 votes

puts me to sleep

12 votes

not enough information to determine (p>.05)

60 votes

Barack's PAC Attack- Business as Usual, or Cause for Concern?

campskunk

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Monday November 26, 2007 · 6:59 PM PST

2007/11/26 · 18:59

The Washington Post broke the story this morning- Barack Obama's political action committee, Hopefund, has been handing out money to political candidates in the early primary states of New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. Some of these candidates have endorsed Obama.

FEC laws are clear on the subject- leadership PACs are all fine, well, and good, but they can't be used to subsidize the PAC owner's campaign. If they could, campaign contribution and expenditure limits could be easily circumvented.

So let's examine Barack Obama's contributions to candidates during this 2008 election cycle and see if there are any indications that his use of this leadership PAC is anything other than what a leadership PAC should be- a vehicle for promoting the election of Democratic candidates. Follow me...

campskunk

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Monday November 19, 2007 · 7:20 PM PST

2007/11/19 · 19:20

As the Democratic primaries approach, the candidates are still going at it over issues that were raised during the debate last Thursday night (transcript). In watching the debate, I was struck by Hillary's focused, immediate response style of challenging misleading statements attaching her record and positions on these issues, and I think it's playing well with the electorate.

Hillary did an outstanding job at hitting back when the other candidates attacked her. In particular, Barack Obama tried to go after her on healthcare, and she reminded the viewers that his healthcare reform plan was not universal healthcare coverage, leaving some 15 million people without coverage. She immediately illustrated the size of the problem by noting that that number equaled roughly the populations of the first four states in next year’s primaries – Iowa, South Carolina. New Hampshire and Nevada. That's a lot of people... and her illustration points out the size of the problem to the voters in the early primary states.

The other candidates are still attacking her, and she’s still setting the record straight. Most recently, the issues seem to center around health care reform. Follow me...

campskunk

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Thursday November 01, 2007 · 5:21 PM PDT

2007/11/01 · 17:21

Senator Jim Webb's press release today:

30 Senators Say White House Must Seek Congressional Approval for Offensive Military Action against Iran

Aggressive Rhetoric Undermines Diplomacy

Washington, DC, Nov. 1 — Along with 29 co-signers, Senator Jim Webb of Virginia sent a letter to the White House today warning the President not to take offensive military action against Iran without the express consent of Congress. Designed to clarify any ambiguity as a result of a recent Senate amendment urging designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, the Senators also expressed concern that the administration’s increasingly provocative rhetoric has undermined diplomatic efforts with Iran.

Follow me for the details, and who showed up to warn Bush about war with Iran...

campskunk

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Tuesday October 23, 2007 · 7:16 PM PDT

2007/10/23 · 19:16

The Obama campaign has undergone a schism in Iowa, with supporters being divided between the two new candidates emerging from this shake-up: Barack Obama-Then and Barack Obama-Now. Barack Obama-Now has distributed a new mailer to undecided Iowa Democrats and stated:

"Why is this (Kyl-Lieberman) amendment so dangerous? Because George Bush and Dick Cheney could use this language to justify keeping our troops in Iraq as long as they can point to a threat from Iran."

Barack Obama-Then responded:

A reduced but active presence (in Iraq) will also send a clear message to hostile countries like Iran and Syria that we intend to remain a key player in this region...Make no mistake, if the Iranians and Syrians think they can use Iraq as another Afghanistan or a staging area from which to attack Israel..., they are badly mistaken. It is in our national interest to prevent this from happening.

And then the gloves came off. Follow me...

Poll

78 votes Show Results

Whom do you currently support for the Democratic nomination for president?

78 votes Vote Now!

Whom do you currently support for the Democratic nomination for president?

Obama-Then

8 votes

Obama-Now

16 votes

I need to hear more about their positions on subsidized beer before deciding

23 votes

pie

31 votes

Barack Obama- Saber Rattling on Iran?

campskunk

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Monday October 22, 2007 · 7:23 PM PDT

2007/10/22 · 19:23

As I have diaried before, Barack Obama has taken pains to portray himself as a sharp contrast to Hillary Clinton on Iran, particularly regarding the Kyl-Lieberman amendment. However, this is a recent development, and there is ample evidence to support the contention that the differences between Hillary's and Barack's positions on Iran are largely cosmetic and, as another diary of mine shows, of recent origin.

Let's look at some of the publicly available statements Barack Obama has made on Iran before he knew he was being compared to Hillary, and see what his actual position is. A careful review of the full record of Barack Obama's statements over the past few years can only lead one to the conclusion that people who are worried about Hillary "leading us into war with Iran" had better be worried about the charge of the Barack Brigade as well. Barack Obama has been discussing the merits of military attacks on Iran for years, using the same rationales other Iran war hawks.

Follow me for specifics...

campskunk

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Monday October 15, 2007 · 6:23 PM PDT

2007/10/15 · 18:23

Wes Clark is a man of few words. In exactly 611 of them, he spells out the fallacies in recent attempts by various groups within the Democratic party to recharacterize the Kyl-Lieberman amendment as something it is not for political purposes. Wes did this in the Manchester Union-Leader op-ed piece he wrote for Sunday's paper. Basically, his premise is that:

• Hillary's strong support for congressional leverage and a strong national posture is what is needed to engage Iran.

• Leveraged diplomacy is what the situation calls for, not the Bush administration's failure to engage.
• Nothing in Kyl-Lieberman could be construed as authorization for military action by a reasonable observer, and Hillary has consistently spoken out on the need for explicit authorization by Congress prior to any military action.
• The situation calls for action now, and the right thing to do is put pressure on the Bush Administration to engage Iran diplomatically.

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Hillary wins Pennsylvania straw poll

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In Defense of John Lewis

Earth to Obama - Unions MADE this Party

Hillary Won the Debate- Kossacks Say So

Barack's PAC Attack- Business as Usual, or Cause for Concern?

Healthcare Reform: Hillary Gets It Like No One Else

30 Senators Sign Webb's Letter Warning Bush on Iran, Obama Declines to Sign

Debate in Iowa: Obama-Then vs. Obama-Now

Barack Obama- Saber Rattling on Iran?

Wes Clark calls bullshit on Kyl-Lieberman revisionists