After caucuses and primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, the Democratic nomination contest moves to Florida. I know, I know, we were bad and we don't get any delegates (for now). But I'm a purist. I want to look at how representative the states so far have been of America as a whole in demographics.
And Florida wins. So like it or lump it, the results of Tuesday's Democratic primary two days from now are Florida's voters speaking with a voice that sounds like America.
Of course, Florida is not representative of the rest of the country in all areas. Our weather puts yours to shame. Last night, I slept with the sound of the surf coming in through my windows, and awoke to blue skies, temperatures in the 60s, and the first buds of spring in the treetops. And it's JANUARY.
Other areas of Floridian superiority -our women (and men) are MUCH prettier than yours. And our citrus products, nectar of the gods that they are, make California orange juice taste like battery acid. (OK, OK, I'm getting a little carried away. Sorry.)
But in important demographic characteristics, we are JUST like America.
Follow me...
So where are my supporting facts? Right here. Your tax dollars at work- the US Census population estimates for the entire US, plus individual state totals for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida. The most recent estimates available are for 2006, but that's close enough. I'm not going to wait for the 2010 census to get better figures.
To save you trouble, I have assembled figures for each state in the table below.
Columns across are the geographic entity in question, the 2006 population estimate, and then the percentage of that population in the following categories: white (non-Hispanic), black, Hispanic, and over 65. (The Census Bureau, like most demographic institutions, classifies "white" and "Hispanic" as overlapping categories- if you want people in one and only one category, use "white- non-Hispanic" instead of "white".)
The last column is a something I call "badness of fit", which quantifies how like or unlike each state is to the country as a whole. The "badness of fit" is simply the chi-square value obtained by comparing the percentages of each of the four demographic variables to that of the US. Before you statistical purists open any veins in protest (chi-square tests are supposed to be done on raw counts, not percentages), let me point out that
- as my advanced calculus professor used to say when we caught his errors, "I have passed MY examinations."
- a real chi-square test with literally millions of data points will be wildly significant for trivial differences in frequency, obscuring differences between states, and
- this methodology controls for differences in state size (very generous of me, since Florida has twice as many people in it as all primary/caucus states so far COMBINED), and is equivalent to setting each state's population equal to 100. Why it makes sense to also set the US population at 100, don't ask.
Having quashed that insurrection, let us proceed with an examination of the results. The baddest of the bad is New Hampshire, with a chi square value of 23.63. Lotta white folks up there- few blacks and Hispanics. Almost as bad is Iowa (chi square = 17.34)- slightly more minorities, but still over 90% non-black and non-Hispanic.
South Carolina's a little better (chi square = 13.19) in overall fit, but the mismatch with the US population is overrepresentation of blacks, and underrepresentation of Hispanics. Nevada is a big step down in badness of fit (chi square = 3.95), to the point where it wouldn't be significant in a n=100 sample (p=.267), but this time the skewness in the sample is underrepresentation of blacks, and overrepresentation of Hispanics, the opposite of South Carolina.
And now to Florida, home of the blessed. As you can see, another big step toward goodness of fit (chi square = 1.75), and away from the over- and under-representation in the demographics of previous states. We LOOK like America.
OK, so we're old. Deal with it. You too will be old one day.
I rest my case. So when you blow off the results of our primary, in which Hillary will give your candidate a beating, remember... we ARE America. This is what the country looks like. If there were a national primary, it would look like our results.